The airline pilot shortage crisis isn’t news in the aviation world, with new aircraft set to enter the global fleet, the airline pilot demand is expected to rise dramatically in the next two decades. Boeing predicts that 790,000 new pilots will be needed by 2037 to meet the market, with 96,000 required for the business aviation sector alone.
Airbus set their pilot demand forecast figure at 450,000 by 2035 – although considerably less than Boeing’s prediction, the gap between demand and supply will only further add to the pilot crisis. CEO of Alerion Aviation, Bob Seidel has warned that the shortage of pilots could seriously threaten the private aviation sector.
Traditionally private aviation required the most experienced pilots who could provide the highest level of service, including being extremely flexible, to their VIP passengers. They would thus be paid handsomely for their services.
However, as the private and commercial airline sectors fight to attract the same pool of qualified pilots, commercial airlines are currently battling the global pilot shortage by offering higher salaries and benefits that private jet operators can’t match.
Why is the problem getting worse?
Several commercial dynamics have occurred over the past 30 years, including socioeconomic factors such as aging. The demographic of ‘Baby Boomer’ pilots who make up 50% of today’s pilots are due to retire soon – significantly reducing the amount of qualified and experienced pilots available to employ.
One of the reasons for pilot shortage is the ‘1,500-hour rule’ which took effect in the US in 2013 as a safety measure after the Colgan Air 3407 crash in 2009. The new rule stated that First Officers needed to have accrued 1,500 hours of flight time to qualify for their Air Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate – 1,250 more hours than the previous 250 hours rule.
Furthermore, ATP pilots were required to gain an additional 1,000 flight hours to qualify as a captains. While well-intentioned, the new rules are only adding to the shortage of pilots. With higher levels of experience required, demand for airline pilots is fierce, leading to a global pilot shortage.
Seidel said “At 1,500 flight hours, that’s the level of people that we have as a minimum. Airlines have been stealing pilots from the private jet industries with higher salaries and free flights. They are winning the hearts and minds of a lot of pilots. We’ve even lost captains with 4,000 hours and more; airlines lure them away with offers of fixed schedules, fixed days on and off, as well as high salaries and free travel. It has gotten to be very competitive.”
It’s a perfect storm: demographic shift, regulatory changes, and socio-economic factors.
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What about the rest of the world?
As expected, the pilot crisis resonates right around the world. However, commercial airlines in areas, like Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are attracting pilots with inclusive packages in sunnier climates that are hard to refuse.
Some Emirates pilot jobs packages include furnished accommodation, utility bills, relocation costs, education allowances (for your children), medical insurance, personal accident insurance, your pension, and loss of license insurance – and that’s on top of tax-free earnings.
A lot of people have jumped ship to be expats to places that are flush with cash that will pay exorbitant amounts. That’s also a drain.
However, he also noted, “The flip side to that is that it wears on you after a few years unless you are really adapted to a new culture. After you do it for three or four years, you need to get back to whatever it is that you miss.”
What’s the solution?
One of the biggest factors affecting airline pilot shortage is time, as the retirement age for many current pilots is creeping up.
There are many initiatives to recruit and train more pilots in progress because of the growing airline pilot demand, but as with any training period, it does take time. Also, while the recruits will alleviate some long-term pressures, it won’t compensate for the impending decline of experienced pilots who are set to retire soon.
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Seidel suggests that a possible option to alleviate the shortage of pilots is by relaxing the rules around the retirement age. He muses, “People are very healthy and active and interested in continuing to work past their 60s these days.”
While safety will always be paramount, he also flagged that flight hours alone might not be the best way to measure experience. He said, “There is a whole spectrum of capabilities represented. Some are pretty young and green but outstanding, and some very experienced but not that good. We have to come up with different ways that recognize skills other than flight hours.”
Whether there becomes some flexibility around retirement ages or shifts in measuring experience remains to be seen, but what’s sure is that this pilot crisis isn’t set to resolve itself anytime soon fully but the demand for airline pilots is on the rise – and how that will affect the growth of global aviation in the future is a question which remains unanswered.
